In Israel’s election on Tuesday Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud
Beiteinu polled more than any other party albeit with a substantially reduced
number of seats. The biggest surprise is
the strong showing of the newly formed centrist Yesh Atid party that has
secured 19 Knesset seats. Its leader and
former TV broadcaster Yair Lapid stated before the election that he would only
join a coalition that was seriously
committed to negotiations with the Palestinians[1].
Israel’s system of proportional representation has ensured
that no one party has ever been able to deliver an outright majority in
Government. But yesterday’s election results
were particularly confusing, splitting the Knesset down the middle with 60
seats each for the right wing and Centrist/left blocks. In order to form a government Binyamin
Netanyahu is “reaching across the aisle” to potential centrist coalition
partners such as Yesh Atid.
If, as is likely, Netanyahu succeeds in forming a coalition
involving one or more of the centrist parties, it is doubtful that this would bring
about any significant change of direction on policies towards a peace process.
Firstly we should not attempt to read into the results of
the Tuesday’s election shifts in Israeli public opinion on dealings with the
Palestinians or on policy towards Iran.
While these may be a consideration for voters, domestic issues are the
main priority.
Secondly most in the former right wing coalition had been
looking forward to a clearer policy rejecting any further compromise with
Palestinians and pursuing an assertive and unapologetic policy on illegal settlement
expansion. Netanyahu has a rather
tepid commitment to negotiations with Palestinians but the majority of those on
the Likud Beiteinu Party list do not support negotiations of any form. One Likud Member of the Knesset asserted last
week that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 2009 speech calling for a
Palestinian State was no more than a
tactical manoeuvre to placate the world and that the party remains opposed
to the establishment of a Palestinian State.
Yair Lapid has been critical of Netanyahu’s lukewarm approach to
negotiations and supports a near complete withdrawal from the West Bank. But any influence arising from the presence
of centrist parties joining a coalition will be constrained by a mood within
Likud Beiteinu that wants to see the Government to deliver a strong and
punitive response to the Palestinian’s claim for recognition at the UN.
On the other hand, as settlement expansion continues and the
prospects for a two-state solution appear to retreat further into the distance,
a coalition involving Yesh Atid or others from the centre ground could provide a
government that is more responsive to pressure brought to bear by the
international community. But in essence
it would appear that a confused election result does not provide Netanyahu with
a mandate either for conducting meaningful negotiations or for refusing to
negotiate on the future of the Palestinian territories.
[1] Yair Lapid has also made clear that Israel’s
commitment to “an undivided Jerusalem” is not up for negotiation.
